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China’s Double Digits

1 February 2010 No Comment

In spite of, power outages and weather-related disruptions and inflationary pressures; China’s manufacturing activity was able to expand in January, sustaining the momentum of its near year-long rebound.

HSBC’s China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered its fastest level of growth on record in January, showing activity expanding for the 10th month in a row. But inflationary pressures suggest there are mounting risks to the outlook.

A rival PMI, jointly published by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics, released Monday, indicated expansion now continuing into the 11th straight month, although the pace cooled somewhat from December’s figure. January’s PMI was the seventh consecutive month of double-digit growth.

The Federation’s PMI came in a little weaker than the preceding month, easing to 55.8 from 56.6 in December. January’s level, the first month-on-month dip since May, was the second-highest since the recovery cycle began in November 2008.

Though offering up slightly different views of the manufacturing sector, analysts said the two surveys indicated a broadening recovery in spite of mounting concerns that policy makers are moving to rein in huge stimulus injections made in the wake of the global financial crisis.

“The second quarter looks to be a particularly testing time for Chinese policy makers, with growth likely to remain firmly in the double digits and inflation picking up very quickly,” said SocGen Asia-Pacific economist Glenn Maguire.

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