
European Interest rates stays at record lows
Europe’s two leading central banks are expected to keep interest rates unchanged Thursday and damp down any talk that borrowing costs will soon rise in the wake of a surprise rate hike by Australia’s central bank to lift rates.
Analysts say the European Central Bank, which controls monetary policy for the 16 countries that use the euro, and Britain’s Bank of England will keep benchmark interest rates unchanged at historic lows of 1 percent and 0.5 percent.
Unlike Australia, the Eurozone and British economies remain in recession, though upcoming figures may show a modest pickup in growth over the final months of 2009.
In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia felt able to lift its main interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.25 percent amid mounting inflation concerns and a strong rebound in growth. Rate hikes are bankers chief weapon against inflation; low rates are used to spur growth in recessions.
And the International Monetary Fund says it expects only 0.3 percent for the Eurozone next year. Even that would be welcome after a massive 4.2 percent slump in 2009 as exports, particularly from Germany, dwindled. The European Central Bank itself expected 0.2 percent growth for 2010, revised up from its previous prediction of a 0.3 percent contraction.
That won’t be enough, analysts say, to push policymakers at the European Central Bank into any speedy decision to raise rates as inflationary pressures will likely remain benign given the extent of the output lost during the recession.
Jean-Claude Trichet, the central bank’s president, has said that recovery should not be taken for granted and has warned about the uneven nature of the upturn as firms rebuild inventories and government programs to support the car industry end.
At his press conference following last month’s interest rate decision, Trichet said any rebound was “expected to be uneven” and that the “worst possible attitude” would be to conclude that it was “business as usual” now that financial markets were functioning much better.
Analysts said that was a clear statement from Trichet that interest rates are not changing any time soon.



















