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A sight through the week ahead

12 October 2009 No Comment

Today’s trading activity was subdued as U.S. markets are closed for Columbus Day. Also, markets in Japan are closed for Health-Sports Day, while Canadian markets are shut for Thanksgiving Day. So there were no U.S. economic reports on Monday.

But in fact, looking through this week’s data we would find that it’s mixed. On one hand, the data concerning the U.S. overall retail sales is expected to show a dull decline; while on the other hand, Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas for September may plunge slightly to 0.0% from 0.6% and the Advance Retail Sales may fall by -2.1% from 2.7%; whereas Retail Sales show that less Autos could plummet to 0.2% from 1.1%.

Furthermore, the Import Price Index, which tracks changes in the prices paid for goods imported to the United States, is forecasted to show a slight incline and come in around -11.4%; better than a prior reading of -15.0% for the year ending September, indicating that the contraction of the index has eased.

As for the overall CPI data, which is an index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor that measures the weighted average of prices to a fixed basket of goods and services; such as transportation, medical care, and food, it is forecasted to show some steadiness and therefore reflects the rise of prices throughout the country and are stable within this period.

In fact, the CPI Excluding Food & Energy is expected to come in at unchanged 0.1% for September and may come unchanged as well around 1.4% for the year ending September; while the CPI for the same month, may slightly incline to -1.4% from -1.5%.

Profits and better than expected results; companies such as Pepsi and Alcoa reported earnings topping median estimates, while more companies will report their results for the third quarter of this year. Accordingly, we should expect stock markets to be volatile during the week, since those results will help in forming the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Also, the Fed will release the minutes from its September 22-23 meeting, where strategists hope to find more direction on policy makers’ inclination to tighten monetary policy before the economy’s recovery is solidified.

Despite Bernanke remarks that the FED would begin to tighten monetary policy, they were still enough to encourage traders to unwind some short dollar positions. Still, many investors and traders continue to hold bets that the dollar will decline further. With other central banks deemed more likely to raise interest rates before the Fed, the U.S. will continue to have rates that are considered unattractive to investors.

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