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Dow Reaching 10,000 While FOMC Has No Clue

15 October 2009 No Comment

U.S. stocks on Wednesday moved sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 9,995, trying to get to 10,000 for the first time in a year. After surprisingly better than expected quarterly earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. The Dow stood at 9,995.68, up 124.62 points, or 1.3%, after hitting an intraday high of 10,001.5.

JPMorgan Chase & Co announced that the earnings for the third quarter of this year were $0.82 a share today, compared with median estimates of $0.508 a share and following the prior reported $0.70 a share profit during the second quarter; whereas net income rose to $3.6 billion compared with $2.72 billion in the prior quarter.

Net revenue rose to $28.78 billion in the third quarter, compared with $27.71 billion in the second quarter. However, provisions for credit losses rose to $9.80 billion compared with $9.70 billion in the previous quarter; JPMorgan Chase also signaled that the increase in revenue was related to the absence of markdowns on legacy leveraged lending and mortgage positions, in addition to strong trading activities in the investment bank unit. JPMorgan explained that the bank indeed has a strong capital position, which will provide it with strength to invest, which could be a positive sign of the future.

However, the ongoing improvement put downside pressure on the dollar, dragging it to 14-month low. But the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting of Sept. 22-23 reveal that below the veneer, officials have a wide range of views about where the economy is headed and therefore where Fed policy needs to be.

The wide range of opinions about the economic outlook and the Fed’s unprecedented policies had been expected. Some officials believe that the Fed will need to tighten policy sooner rather than later. Others are worried that a weak recovery might cause a dangerous downturn in prices. Most Fed officials agreed that a recovery has started. But there was little agreement about the strength of the expected upturn.

There was a range of views expressed about the Fed’s unprecedented credit-easing policies. Some Fed officials wanted to boost the size of the Fed’s purchase of mortgage securities, while one wanted to end the program early. There was no intention for hiking rates at this meeting because the cost of the economy turning out to be weaker than anticipated could be relatively high, the minutes said. The Fed decided to extend its purchase of MBS and asset-backed securities into the first quarter to smooth them out and avoid any sudden end that might jolt markets.

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