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Growth Ends China’s Easy Policy

22 October 2009 No Comment

China released a bunch of economic data Thursday indicating the economy expanded at an accelerated rate in the third quarter, raising the prospect that Beijing may begin to unwind its crisis-driven expansionary policies by year’s end.

Gross domestic product expanded 8.9% in the third quarter compared to the same period a year ago, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The increase was greater than the 7.9% expansion in the second quarter. The economy is not only expanding at the fastest clip in a year, but is continuing to accelerate.

In other figures released Thursday, urban fixed-asset investment rose 33.3% in the first three quarters, edging up from 33.0% growth in the first eight months of the year, the Statistics Bureau said.
Industrial production in September rose 13.9% on year, higher than expectations of a 13.3% rise and above August’s 12.3% gain. For the first nine months of the year industrial production rose 8.7%.
Meanwhile, China’s retail sales rose 15.5% in September from the year before, speeding up slightly from August’s 15.4% growth.

Analysts said the fast acceleration in the economy reflected concerns authorities are preparing to rein in emergency credit policies. China’s State Council said Wednesday the economy is firming, signaling that it may exceed its official 8% growth target this year, and raising possibility that Beijing is edging closer to a tightening stance.

So far the growth has been domestic-driven, but economists worry the economy could begin to overheat when the world starts buying more Chinese-made goods. J.P Morgan said China’s exports strengthened in September and are on track to stop contracting in year-over-year terms in the next few months.

For the time being, China said it has no plans to walk back from its current expansionary lending policy and large fiscal stimulus.

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