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GDP Weak Bounce in the Euro-Zone

13 November 2009 No Comment

The two largest economies in Europe released their third quarter GDP growth. Germany’s economy grew 0.7% in the period that ended September 30 and France announced a 0.3% improvement. In the second quarter, both countries had reported a tiny up-tick in GDP.

These tiny advances were consistent with growth in other wealthy nations, particularly the U.S. They were also almost certainly caused by the stimulus packages that many E.U. nations have in place. That raises the question of how developed countries will fare once their governments stop pumping liquidity into the financial system.

E.U. nations face the same problems that the U.S. does - unemployment and tight credit. The Bank of England in particular, is trying to solve this by mainlining money into its banks. So far, the results have been muted. But its stimulus package will run out and its national debt is high enough to have drawn concern from credit ratings agencies. England does not have a single additional pound to put toward priming the pump of growth.

Economic growth returned to the euro zone in the third quarter, but the bounce - after five consecutive declining quarters - was weaker than had been expected, leaving economists to question the strength and sustainability of the 16-nation region’s recovery.

Business surveys indicate the recovery trend remains intact, leaving GDP on track to show annualized growth of 1% to 1.5% in the final quarter of the year. The economist, however, sees the threat of a slowdown in growth in 2010, citing three factors — a fading in the impact of the inventory buildup, a decelerating pace of car registrations, and an easing of exports amid lackluster global growth.

In other words, the fourth quarter will be the litmus test for most of Europe, where the holiday spending season is a critical measure for consumer spending, just as it is in the U.S. Signs that stimulus packages have not boosted the purchase patterns of individuals could signify that they have had almost no effect at all.

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