Home » Behind the Scenes, Forecast & Analysis
Share

FED Expectations

16 March 2010 No Comment

Despite the economic growth and improvements that are seen in the releases of the U.S. Official data for weeks, the Federal Reserve is still expected to be holding interest rates near zero for an extended period.

Analysts widely expect the central bank to say again that high unemployment and low inflation warrant holding borrowing costs “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.” At today’s meeting the Fed most probably will renew its pledge to keep borrowing costs very low for a long time.

Fed could never ignore the brightening economic picture. Reaching this brightening picture was the reason why the fed kept benchmark rates near zero since December 2008.

Economic recovery has shown signs of growing and markets will look closely at how the Fed characterizes the outlook for any signs that policy-makers may modify the low rate promise at the central bank’s April meeting.

Still, Senior Fed officials have said in recent appearances that the recovery continues to be tepid and suggested rate increases are far off.

“Notwithstanding the positive signs, the job market remains quite weak,” Bernanke said in semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress February 25.

The Fed is also likely to note it plans to let its asset-buying programs end at the end of the month, but could leave the door open to more such purchases in the future.

The vast majority of primary dealers do not see any change in the Fed’s “extended period” language until April at the earliest. Most do not see an interest rate increase until the second half of this year.

Comments are closed.